Who can qualify for UCL knockouts? Permutations and play-off round explained

After six rounds of fixtures the bloated Champions League is finally taking shape and while table toppers Liverpool are already all-but assured of a place in the round of 16, the fortunes of most teams remains undecided entering this week’s penultimate set of games.

Arsenal and Aston Villa should at worst face a play-off round next month but look well placed for a bye to the round of 16, but Pep Guardiola ’s Manchester City must avoid defeat away to Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday to keep their fate of a top-24 finish in their own hands.

Who can qualify for UCL knockouts? Permutations and play-off round explained

Here is where things stand for all the clubs as the business end approaches.

The top eight sail straight into the round of 16, with those placed ninth to 24th facing off in a seeded two-legged play-off to progress.

Those who finished 25th and lower are out of Europe with no longer a second chance in the Europa League available.

Liverpool, thanks to six wins from six, are all but assured of progress to the round of 16 and seven other sides have all-but guaranteed at worst a play-off. Only goal difference and a remarkable run of results will stop Arne Slot's Premier League leaders from bypassing the initial stage.

From ninth down to 26th there is a gap of five points, meaning it will not be until Wednesday night that the permutations for those teams become clear.

RB Leipzig, Slovan Bratislava and Young Boys are all pointless, while Bologna's return of two draws has them out of the reckoning.

Sturm Graz, Girona, Crvena Zvezda and RB Salzburg all require miracles to get a play-off. Shakhtar Donetsk and Sparta Praha, on four points each, face a mountain to climb.

Arsenal sit third before games against Dinamo Zagreb and Girona but are just three points clear of Club Brugge down in 19th. A win against the Croatians at home will almost guarantee a top eight spot but they may still need a draw in Spain next week.

Villa, meanwhile, are in fifth position but only behind the Gunners on goal difference. And to bypass the play-off they will need four points from this week's trip to Monaco and a game at home to Celtic in nine days' time.

Manchester City, meanwhile, face a daunting prospect of needing to at minimum avoid defeat away to Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday night. The French giants are also badly in need of a win because they sit outside the top 24.

Pep Guardiola’s side host Club Brugge on the final night but a return of three points from the two games might not be enough to guarantee a spot in the top 24.

Those two-legged ties will take place in on February 11 and 12 with return fixtures on 18 and 19. The round of 16 is pencilled in for March 4, 5 and 11, 12.


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